Thank you Fabian for this analysis. Unfortunately latest strike on Votkinsk was not that successful, as apparently all Flamingos where shot down by AA. With such a huge body and slow cruising speed, we should not expect too much of this missile in terms of AA avoidance. To increase efficiency FP should indeed focus on sensors to improve aiming and mass production, as you rightly observe.
Yes, I saw the news about it, but I didn't include it because I didn't find clear evidence that the attack took place (even though I certainly consider it feasible).
But this also speaks to the methodological issue I outlined above: that there is a case selection bias in which cases are reported, and that almost certainly creates a picture that skews the assessed performance in favor of the Flamingo.
I hope the collaboration between Ukrainian and Canadian drone manufacturers can help accelerate the numbers and quality of the drones that are to be made in Canada for Ukraine. If Russia is now listing Canada as a warmonger, I want to make sure that we earn that label convincingly.
Good analysis. Looks like they’re moving the flamingo from a creative adaptation to ultimately a reliable element of the arsenal. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to get both reliability and production rates up.
To add to your thoughts on Russia’s missile production capabilities, I just wanted to point out that, as of June 2026, Ukraine hit 8 Russian factories involved in the missile production chain:
1. JSC Progress: inertial guidance
2. Elastik: solid propellants
3. VNIIR-Progress: Kometa antennas
4. VZPP-S: semiconductors
5. Orenburg Helium: propulsion
6. Azot-Novomoskovsk: explosive precursors
7. Titan-Barrikady: launchers
8. NIIFI: inertial sensors
It will be interesting to see in the coming weeks or months whether this begins to affect the scale of Russia’s strikes.
Unfortunately, I can't add an image to this comment, but you will find further details, including maps of the sites and statistics on these strikes, in sections 5 and 6 of this situation report:
the Flamingo cruise missile is a relic — a museum piece dragged into modern war for propaganda value. America and Europe hype it as if it’s cutting‑edge, but it’s slow, outdated, and symbolic of a West living off past glory. The missile isn’t the problem; the mindset is. A decaying bloc pretending its old toys still shape the battlefield.
Ukraine isn’t being “supported”; it’s being slow‑rolled into exhaustion while Western governments recycle upbeat slogans to mask strategic failure. Russia’s manpower, industry, and attrition tolerance dwarf anything Ukraine can field. Each Western promise arrives late, small, and politically fragile. The war’s trajectory isn’t heroic — it’s a grinding demolition of a state pushed to fight a larger power without the tools to win.
Russia's "attrition tolerance" may greater than that of Ukraine, but they are obviously being attriited at a much higher rate, with some recent reports claiming a ratio of 8:1 kills against Russia. Even if that number is not correct, visual evidence in the form of squads of decrepit infantry, without enough guns and lacking enough armor to go around, suggests that your analysis is faulty.
No one says the Flamingo is cutting edge, but it moves faster than the Ukranian attack drones that meander about oil production facilities or the St. Pete port area.
Thank you Fabian for this analysis. Unfortunately latest strike on Votkinsk was not that successful, as apparently all Flamingos where shot down by AA. With such a huge body and slow cruising speed, we should not expect too much of this missile in terms of AA avoidance. To increase efficiency FP should indeed focus on sensors to improve aiming and mass production, as you rightly observe.
Yes, I saw the news about it, but I didn't include it because I didn't find clear evidence that the attack took place (even though I certainly consider it feasible).
But this also speaks to the methodological issue I outlined above: that there is a case selection bias in which cases are reported, and that almost certainly creates a picture that skews the assessed performance in favor of the Flamingo.
According to recent news, the Flamingo gets French Safran guidance system. I am not sure if it's implemented yet.
I hope the collaboration between Ukrainian and Canadian drone manufacturers can help accelerate the numbers and quality of the drones that are to be made in Canada for Ukraine. If Russia is now listing Canada as a warmonger, I want to make sure that we earn that label convincingly.
Good analysis. Looks like they’re moving the flamingo from a creative adaptation to ultimately a reliable element of the arsenal. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to get both reliability and production rates up.
🇩🇰❤️🇺🇦
Thank you Fabian for this analysis.
To add to your thoughts on Russia’s missile production capabilities, I just wanted to point out that, as of June 2026, Ukraine hit 8 Russian factories involved in the missile production chain:
1. JSC Progress: inertial guidance
2. Elastik: solid propellants
3. VNIIR-Progress: Kometa antennas
4. VZPP-S: semiconductors
5. Orenburg Helium: propulsion
6. Azot-Novomoskovsk: explosive precursors
7. Titan-Barrikady: launchers
8. NIIFI: inertial sensors
It will be interesting to see in the coming weeks or months whether this begins to affect the scale of Russia’s strikes.
Unfortunately, I can't add an image to this comment, but you will find further details, including maps of the sites and statistics on these strikes, in sections 5 and 6 of this situation report:
https://yrouille.substack.com/p/war-in-ukraine-situation-report-w27
Many thanks!!
the Flamingo cruise missile is a relic — a museum piece dragged into modern war for propaganda value. America and Europe hype it as if it’s cutting‑edge, but it’s slow, outdated, and symbolic of a West living off past glory. The missile isn’t the problem; the mindset is. A decaying bloc pretending its old toys still shape the battlefield.
Ukraine isn’t being “supported”; it’s being slow‑rolled into exhaustion while Western governments recycle upbeat slogans to mask strategic failure. Russia’s manpower, industry, and attrition tolerance dwarf anything Ukraine can field. Each Western promise arrives late, small, and politically fragile. The war’s trajectory isn’t heroic — it’s a grinding demolition of a state pushed to fight a larger power without the tools to win.
Many words to say no.
But very well expressed and I appreciate that,
Russia's "attrition tolerance" may greater than that of Ukraine, but they are obviously being attriited at a much higher rate, with some recent reports claiming a ratio of 8:1 kills against Russia. Even if that number is not correct, visual evidence in the form of squads of decrepit infantry, without enough guns and lacking enough armor to go around, suggests that your analysis is faulty.
Pushed by who?
Have you got arguments?
Thank you for this comment. I can now safely mute you knowing with certainty that you have nothing of value to bring to any conversation.
No one says the Flamingo is cutting edge, but it moves faster than the Ukranian attack drones that meander about oil production facilities or the St. Pete port area.