Here is what Iran's missile attack against Israel can tell us about the capabilities of modern missile defenses and the lethality of ballistic missiles strikes.
The extreme cost of interceptors vs. ballistic missiles should come into play here. As others have noted, the US intervened in both instances to protect Israel. In this instance, we had a dozen interceptors fired by two USN ships; that's an entire year's production run of SM3s, at a cost of $27mm per. That's simply not sustainable, especially given that each Iranian ballistic missile costs maybe $1m per shot.
Even with a full ramp up of SM3 production, the US can crank out about 50-60 per year. The math just doesn't add up vs what Russia or China can produce.
Depends how you look at it. US GDP:Iran GDP is well in excess of 27:1. Of course the US has to fund many more fingers in many more pies but still.
Iranian milfinance is obviously something of a black box but conservatively I think you could say costwise their missile program(s)--spanning all civ+mil--are at least comparable to US early Cold War era efforts. Which is to say it's a very large outlay consuming a lot of top eng talent.
They seem to get good value for it. It's what I'd do in their shoes. But far from inexpensive.
The extreme cost of interceptors vs. ballistic missiles should come into play here. As others have noted, the US intervened in both instances to protect Israel. In this instance, we had a dozen interceptors fired by two USN ships; that's an entire year's production run of SM3s, at a cost of $27mm per. That's simply not sustainable, especially given that each Iranian ballistic missile costs maybe $1m per shot.
Even with a full ramp up of SM3 production, the US can crank out about 50-60 per year. The math just doesn't add up vs what Russia or China can produce.
Yeah that's definitely an issue.
Missile defense can currently not be designed in a cost-efficient way without a strong offensive component that can preemptively go after launchers.
Depends how you look at it. US GDP:Iran GDP is well in excess of 27:1. Of course the US has to fund many more fingers in many more pies but still.
Iranian milfinance is obviously something of a black box but conservatively I think you could say costwise their missile program(s)--spanning all civ+mil--are at least comparable to US early Cold War era efforts. Which is to say it's a very large outlay consuming a lot of top eng talent.
They seem to get good value for it. It's what I'd do in their shoes. But far from inexpensive.
Quick question for clarification:
Do you mean $27mm per missile interceptor?
That is a crazy high number to me!?
Yes.
Hitting a missile with another missile is extremely hard and technically difficult. SM3 Block IIs and Arrows are very costly.
https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-defense-systems-2/missile-defense-systems/missile-interceptors-by-cost/
Pretty sure from reading elsewhere that the Arrow 3 cost is incorrect on the above page.
Not overheads from Tel Nof?
Right?
Sorry meant has anyone seen pictures from Tel Nof?