Yeah, I had it in an earlier draft, but I wanted to not make it too long. This one was already 500 words over my usual limit. Basically the same issue. SLBMs are based on Soviet technology and Russia is pretty much relying on decommissioned ones for spare parts.
All the replenishment efforts on the pits and the tritium... that has to have a logistical trail that should be easy to follow. Are they transporting pits in loaf vans, with it just sitting in the driver's lap? I would think anything that is getting rebuilt has to go to a central facility - it's not like you can do that in a shed on the missile base.
I would believe Russia is maintaining their forces if there was any plausible evidence that could be pointed to. Heck, we have CIVILIAN satellite coverage over nuclear facilities and missile bases, someone should be able to point out that yes, the special purpose pit maintenance vehical convoys have been making the rounds... etc. But the only evidence I've heard is "It's likely/unlikely" and "It's plausable/implausible" about anything related to the logistical efforts and financial investments into nuclear maintenance.
The Russian railroad is state owned. 15 Years ago they closed down maintenance operations - now the rolling stock and locomotives are wearing out. This is the country that is expected to maintain weapons that - if used - means everyone is already dead. Yes, they could put money into that... or...
Thank you for your analysis. What I wonder when I read your piece is where corruption is most likely to hit. It is endemic in Russia, but I doubt it hits equal on everything. Where is the easiest way to skim money? These are weapons that isn’t supposed to be used, you really only need to be able to threaten with them. So who will stop you? I actually believe Russia has a nuclear deterrent, but I think corruption is a possible source of «something that has gone seriously wrong».
None of the claims regarding Russia’s warheads are backed up by fact. Instead statements such as ‘it is likely that’ abound. Why, therefore, does the author claim spurious authority for these suppositions conclusions? They are simply a guess, based on an an assumed best-case (from the Russian point of view) scenario and are therefore no more valid than those based on worst-case scenarios.
I understand that Russia strategic deterrence is under time pressure, is it consistent to think that is increasing the risk they use their nuclear weapons quickly ?
…you need to know what that country was and what it went through and what it is it now, i served in red army in air defense 1974-76, they where full of shit then and now it’s so much worse, to maintain nuclear warheads cost LOT OF MONEY, there’s no way with s that chaos of 90s and all followed history of that country putin’s nukes are all functioning
That all nukes are working, definitely no. Even that most of them are? Actually no there to, given what you says. But even a small number functioning, let’s say ten percent, would form a deterrent.
…you completely missed my point about putin’s bluff, he highjacked the whole world with a fucking SCREWDRIVER ! …world is fucking STUPID - his weapons are PROPAGANDA, CORRUPTION and TERRORISM, EU and US could put an end to this motherfucker in 2014 by firm sanctions and real warning with actions followed, but instead Obama BLEW IT !
You didn't mention SSBNs, which are pretty expensive. How is Russia's SSBN fleet developing and how is its readiness?
Yeah, I had it in an earlier draft, but I wanted to not make it too long. This one was already 500 words over my usual limit. Basically the same issue. SLBMs are based on Soviet technology and Russia is pretty much relying on decommissioned ones for spare parts.
Could Russia’s tactical missiles be adapted to launch from subs?
All the replenishment efforts on the pits and the tritium... that has to have a logistical trail that should be easy to follow. Are they transporting pits in loaf vans, with it just sitting in the driver's lap? I would think anything that is getting rebuilt has to go to a central facility - it's not like you can do that in a shed on the missile base.
I would believe Russia is maintaining their forces if there was any plausible evidence that could be pointed to. Heck, we have CIVILIAN satellite coverage over nuclear facilities and missile bases, someone should be able to point out that yes, the special purpose pit maintenance vehical convoys have been making the rounds... etc. But the only evidence I've heard is "It's likely/unlikely" and "It's plausable/implausible" about anything related to the logistical efforts and financial investments into nuclear maintenance.
The Russian railroad is state owned. 15 Years ago they closed down maintenance operations - now the rolling stock and locomotives are wearing out. This is the country that is expected to maintain weapons that - if used - means everyone is already dead. Yes, they could put money into that... or...
Thank you for your analysis. What I wonder when I read your piece is where corruption is most likely to hit. It is endemic in Russia, but I doubt it hits equal on everything. Where is the easiest way to skim money? These are weapons that isn’t supposed to be used, you really only need to be able to threaten with them. So who will stop you? I actually believe Russia has a nuclear deterrent, but I think corruption is a possible source of «something that has gone seriously wrong».
None of the claims regarding Russia’s warheads are backed up by fact. Instead statements such as ‘it is likely that’ abound. Why, therefore, does the author claim spurious authority for these suppositions conclusions? They are simply a guess, based on an an assumed best-case (from the Russian point of view) scenario and are therefore no more valid than those based on worst-case scenarios.
Hello and thank you for your work .
I understand that Russia strategic deterrence is under time pressure, is it consistent to think that is increasing the risk they use their nuclear weapons quickly ?
Just asking from Paris 😬
…and this
…”Myths and misconceptions around Russian military intent”
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/07/myths-and-misconceptions-around-russian-military-intent
…you need to know what that country was and what it went through and what it is it now, i served in red army in air defense 1974-76, they where full of shit then and now it’s so much worse, to maintain nuclear warheads cost LOT OF MONEY, there’s no way with s that chaos of 90s and all followed history of that country putin’s nukes are all functioning
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36015684
That all nukes are working, definitely no. Even that most of them are? Actually no there to, given what you says. But even a small number functioning, let’s say ten percent, would form a deterrent.
…you completely missed my point about putin’s bluff, he highjacked the whole world with a fucking SCREWDRIVER ! …world is fucking STUPID - his weapons are PROPAGANDA, CORRUPTION and TERRORISM, EU and US could put an end to this motherfucker in 2014 by firm sanctions and real warning with actions followed, but instead Obama BLEW IT !
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/11/obama-russia-ukraine-war-putin-2014-crimea-georgia-biden/#cookie_message_anchor
Ok, you are basically saying none. And a bluff. Got it.